Are Baltic States getting prepared for the mass protests?
Author: Aleksandr Nosovich
Interior Ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia agreed on establishment of a joint committee to coordinate the issues of internal security and public order. It occurs against the growth of paranoid psychosis on the topic "Russia Prepares the Ukrainian Scenario for the Baltics". Are the Baltic states building a repression apparatus to suppress possible protests of the Russian-speaking population?
It turned out that the Baltic policy trends are in inverse proportion to the dynamics of the Ukrainian crisis. Peace negotiations are going on in Minsk. Uneasy truce is being supported in Donbass. The president of Ukraine has declared that he is not on the way with everybody who wants war. Nevertheless, the hysterics on the Ukrainian events just grows in the Baltic states.
It is enough to thumb through the home page of the largest Lithuanian information portal delfi.lt to feel psychological atmosphere of 1937. National security publishes an instruction to teach vigilant citizens to distinguish activity of a foreign intelligence service. The commander of the Lithuanian army speculates, how many days Lithuania will be able to hold out before arrival of Americans in case of a Russian attack. The Speaker of Seym says that Russian statement about violations of the national minorities rights in the Baltic States is an alert. The chairman of the Committee of Seym on foreign affairs declares that Lithuania should be ready for provocations from Russia…
So everything is already clear to the Lithuanian establishment. Tomorrow "little green men" will cross the Queen Louise Bridge without any war declaration. Of course, they will launch an offensive into the Republic of Lithuania at 4 a.m. X-raying everybody.
Everything is clear to Latvian colleagues too.
But Latvian ruling class has a rational motive in all these Russophobian hysterics.
The elections are in two weeks in Latvia. So ruling parties have to stimulate Latvian electorate, but they can’t (or may be don’t want to) invent anything more original than bluffing people with «Putin’s tanks».
Therefore it’s still extremely popular to trouble everybody with the Russian aggression and Russian minority’s disloyalty to Latvia.
"Black scenario: I assume that Latvia can be suggested to create a government from Russian-speaking parties in exchange for escaping occupation regime. It can happen not just after elections. Later", - the political scientist Ilsee Ostrovska claims. The Russian government paves the way for execution of "the Ukrainian scenario" in the Baltic States. The main reason of a possible invasion into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia is a protection of the Russian-speaking population, - considers an American analyst Paul Goubl. TV reporters from LTV Panorama made a plot on the topic "the Russian Embassy hires those citizens of Latvia who wish to be at war in the Ukraine". Quite a juicy idea: defenders of the Russian world and Novorossiya described "recruitment" details in glowing terms in Latvian.
However, it is impossible to tell that the growth of panic in Latvia has started just because of the elections. It looks like Latvian ruling elite has really believed itself in the propaganda, which it had stuffed people with.
Besides loud statements, Latvia takes also practical steps against "the Ukrainian scenario" in cooperation with Lithuania and Estonia. This scenario they understand like mass protests of the Russian population. According to the logic of the Baltics, invasion of "polite people" has to follow after this.
Interior Ministers of the Baltic states agreed on establishment of a joint committee to coordinate the issues of internal security and public order. As the public relations officer of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Latvia declared, the signing of agreements was connected with growth of concern about possible provocations from Russia. "It is a cooperation of three countries in the sphere of public and internal security to unite the potential of all three states if there is any trouble", - the Minister of Internal Affairs of Lithuania Alfonsas Barakauskas declared in connection with creation of a new structure.
In such a way "the Baltic unity" revives. The Baltic Entente 2.0 is the "Holy Alliance" of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia created for mutual aid of the Baltic governments in suppression of protests of the Russian population. They plan to fight not against possible aggression from Russia, but against internal mass protests, and especially Russian-speaking population. If it’s not so, then why is the new structure is created (established) on the basis of the Ministries of Internal Affairs of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and the reasons of its creation (establishment) are officially proclaimed "concern of possible Russian provocations"?
A creation of the repression apparatus in the Baltic States will be a bottom line of this «united potentials». The main goal of this apparatus will be a suppression of protest actions of Russian-speaking (and all the rest in the long term) population.
Latvia is afraid of mass protests most of all. The other day the Prime Minister Laymdota Strauyuma urged to coordinate activity of intelligence services (Bureau for Preventing and Combating Corruption, Security Police, Constitution Protection Bureau). It is really a lot for such a small country like Latvia. But what can make intelligence services if protests have begun already? Can they put a "wiretap" on the Ratushnaya Square or at the Vantovy Bridge? May be they can inculcate their informants in many thousands crowd? No, Latvian management obviously plans to suppress any protest on the model of Tallinn "bronze night".
Of course, they need police for that. But can they be sure that Latvian policemen will carry out an order to bump off a crowd? Probably, they can’t… So they need this fraternal alliance with Lithuania and Estonia.
It is still a debatable question: whether integrated police forces of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are going to use weapons against protesters whatever the case, or just if protests stop being peaceful? Both options are possible. From the rational point of view it is just advantageous for the Baltic elite to give a chance to protest peacefully for those who want and as long as they want. It will be a great steam-out. On the other hand… The Ukrainian ex-President Yanukovych on the night of November 30 of last year harshly dispersed the Maidan when there were several hundred students. But this experiment has only shown that the dense instincts of pathological Russophobia can win a victory against common sense.
При всём несовпадении взглядов, жителей России и Украины объединяет та эмоциональность, с которой воспринимается кризис наших отношений. Эмоциональность перерастает в усталость, у кого-то – в тоску. Для литовцев вся эта история – политический бизнес, для США – инструмент влияния, для ЕС – горячая картошка, а для нас, украинцев и белорусов – нечто личное.
Звон дипломатических сабель, хруст переломленных копий... Резолюция в ответ на резолюцию, против демарша — демарш. За всем этим тихо, полушепотом — новости мелкокалибербные вроде бы, малозначительные. Но очень симптоматичные. На них стоит иногда обращать внимание.
Современная Литва нередко практически не отличима от КНДР. Сумеете ли Вы отличить Литву от Северной Кореи?
В 1918 году Северянин приехал в эстонский поселок Тойла, где и остался на постоянное жительство. Через три года он женился на Фелиссе Круут — дочери хозяина дома, у которого снимал квартиру.