Controlled Crisis: How Ukraine is Being Prepared to be a Kamikaze-State
Author: Aleksander Nosovich
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed the law, denouncing the agreements between Ukraine and Russia, which enabled the transit of Russian military into Transnistria, in addition to that, Ukraine declared that it will do everything in its power to restore Moldova’s territorial integrity. At the same time, the position war on Donbass intensified and in Kiev, the police brutally suppressed the social protests from the people: Ukraine still is playing the role of “bait”, aimed at pulling Russia into a war. Therefore the main tactical goal of the Western curators is that the chaos would not start within the county before it has chance to have a military conflict with Russia.
In the theory of control, they define “crisis management” and “anti-crisis management”. Sometimes they are considered synonymous, however that is a misconception, because they represent two opposite processes. Anti-crisis management – is working to exit a crisis, settlement and stabilization. Crisis management – is preparation for the nearing crisis situation and controlling the process of the crisis: so it would not go out of control and went in a beneficial form. In politics, color revolutions are the classic example of crisis management. Their essence: find the country with objective prerequisites for a regime change (revolutionary situation) and then, in the most opportune moment, “push the falling one” with the most gain for themselves.
We can consider the Ukrainian Maidan of 2013-2014 a shining example: the acting president Yanukovich was already a political corpse after the EU Association fell through, because he made enemies all of the Ukrainian politicum, including the oligarchy, all of the state bureaucracy, the law enforcement, as well as Kiev’s middle class and radical nationalists from the Ukrainian West. So the collective West, headed by the United States, who were also crossed by Yanukovich, did everything they could so that Maidan would win: gave information support within the country and abroad, mobilized all of their NGOs in Ukraine, and, most importantly, categorically forbid the current powers from using force against the protesters, blackmailing the ruling “Donetsk group” with the arrest of their offshore accounts.
This makes it even more interesting to look at how the Ukrainian political crisis will be controlled now, because 18 months after the Maidan there is another revolutionary situation, however the Western outside players definitely don’t need a new Maidan.
According the UN numbers, more than 80% of Ukraine’s population are below the poverty line, and these are not the consequences of 25 post-Soviet years, including the four years of the Yanukovich “evil reign”. It is due to the times just more than a year after Maidan’s victory, because Ukrainian GDP dropped 17% and prices on some essential goods tripled. And it is increasingly more difficult to explain this plummeting drop with “Russian aggression” alone. In light of the government corruption scandals, the ratings of PM Yatsenyuk, who is responsible for the economy, and his People’s Front party dropped lower than 4%. President Poroshenko, as it turns out, on his high government post earned seven times more than in 2013, when he was merely the “chocolate king” oligarch. Obviously all of this can’t be good for the popularity of the ruling regime: in a sense, the crisis of legitimacy is already happening or bound to happen.
However, allowing a third Maidan now is unacceptable to Kiev’s Western patrons. One more months of fighting in the capital’s center, the crowd taking over administrative buildings in the regions and testing the loyalties of the law enforcement will lead to Ukraine of coming apart at the seams: feudal fragmentation and a war of everyone against everyone.
This is why the inevitable social explosion in Ukraine is not stimulated, unlike last time, and is delayed until the time is right.
For example, late last week, just like on 30 November 2013, deep in the night, the protester camp was driven off the Independence Square. Last time, all Ukrainian oligarchical and pro-Western media called them “savage beatings” and the 24 hours afterwards had a non-stop show of the protesters’ bloodied faces, telling of a whole country preparing to stand up as one, because “you can’t do that to your fellow Ukrainians”. The West also eagerly shared the “savage beatings” topic, calling Viktor Yanukovich’s rule a “bloody regime” and promising big trouble if he were to further quell the protests by force.
This time, the routing of the protest camp was the fourth and fifth story in Ukrainian news, no “savage beatings” were mentioned – quite the contrary, the “third Maidan” was called a “set-up” and its participants “Putin mercenaries, who lie that life is bad”. For the Western audience, they even had distraction planned: a “smokescreen” in the form of the “Equality March” for the rights of sexual minorities. The grant-eaters from the Western NGOs who participated decided to use the gay parade to strike at Ukrainian reality: prove once and for all that Ukraine is walking into Europe, European values and protecting human rights – here, we already have gay parades. The fact that at the same time with the gay parade the oppositions meetings are being routed, opposition leaders are being assassinated and the rebelling Donbass population is still being shelled will not be told to the sensitive Western audience: out of all the Ukrainian news, they prefer to report only on the gay parade.
So if the regime change in Ukraine will happen (and this is becoming increasingly possible), then it will be in the form of a special operation, and the popular protests will be used as an excuse, but then still quelled.
Right now the most plausible course of events is this: wait until Ukraine defaults, then, supposedly to let off steam, the impoverished and possibly starving people, they will resign Yatsenyuk’s government. On the next step, they will find a way to get rid of Poroshenko as well. So the first people of the country will change, but the puppeteers behind the scenes will remain the same.
USA and their allies don’t need another color revolution and Ukraine descending into chaos, but it needs the conservation of control over all of its territory, aimed at pulling Russia into a big war. In order to spill the blood of its citizens for someone else’s interests, the country needs to be whole and controllable.
All of last year, Russia managed to avoid a direct involvement in the Donbass war, maintaining protection of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, but not sending in its own armed forces. Right now a third round of fighting to “restore territorial integrity” is on the horizon, with its final goal being drawing Russia into the fighting. But remembering the previous failures, there are alternative variants, which include the Baltics. But it is far from the best choice: the last two weeks have shown that the main push is made for Transnistria.
Many Western and pro-Western observers laughed at the idea, that the appointment of the Georgian ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili as governor of the Odessa region is somehow linked to Transnistria, calling it conspiracy theories and Kremlin propaganda. But the order of events testifies to it: on 21 May, the Verkhovnaya Rada denounced the Ukraine-Russia agreements on the transit of Russian soldiers to Transnistria; 28 May, Ukrainian border patrol declared a military threat from Transnistria; on 29 May, Poroshenko appoints Saakashvili as governor of Odessa region; on 5 June he promises to do everything in order to restore Moldova’s territorial integrity; on 7 June he signs the documents from parliament on banning the transit of Russian peacekeepers into the unrecognized republic.
“But in the 5 + 2 format Ukraine, for my part, perhaps with my participation, will do everything to restore the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova and keep the normal quality of life of those who live there. But within the framework of international law…You know what the key difference between Transnistria and Donetsk is? They don’t share a border with Russia. So it will be easier to bring order there,” said the Ukrainian President on his press conference, proving the connection between Saakashvili appointment and the Transnistria team are linked better than any Russian propaganda could.
Ukraine is being prepared not to just be thrust into war with Russia, it is being prepared to be thrust into war on two fronts. During a war like that, and in a default and political crisis, there will be nothing left of the country.
Figuratively speaking, Ukraine is a kamikaze-state. A suicide bomber, who won’t just blow itself up, but also damage the enemy greatly. Hopefully lethal. But of course, it can’t go off prematurely. So because of that, the country’s descent into chaos is being slowed down.
Translated by: Pavel Shamshiev
При всём несовпадении взглядов, жителей России и Украины объединяет та эмоциональность, с которой воспринимается кризис наших отношений. Эмоциональность перерастает в усталость, у кого-то – в тоску. Для литовцев вся эта история – политический бизнес, для США – инструмент влияния, для ЕС – горячая картошка, а для нас, украинцев и белорусов – нечто личное.
Звон дипломатических сабель, хруст переломленных копий... Резолюция в ответ на резолюцию, против демарша — демарш. За всем этим тихо, полушепотом — новости мелкокалибербные вроде бы, малозначительные. Но очень симптоматичные. На них стоит иногда обращать внимание.
Современная Литва нередко практически не отличима от КНДР. Сумеете ли Вы отличить Литву от Северной Кореи?
В 1918 году Северянин приехал в эстонский поселок Тойла, где и остался на постоянное жительство. Через три года он женился на Фелиссе Круут — дочери хозяина дома, у которого снимал квартиру.